A B S T R A C T

The purpose of the research is to statistically analyze the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on the sustainable development indicators of the Azerbaijani economy.

The methodology of the research – the research is based on the empirical evaluation of the relationship between global oil prices and Azerbaijan’s sustainable development indicators through economic-statistical methods, including descriptive statistics, correlation and regression analysis, and time series modeling.

The practical importance of the research – the results of the study provide practical guidance for designing sustainable development policies in energy-dependent economies and for making optimal fiscal decisions in response to the macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations.

The results of the researh – volatility in global oil prices has a strong positive effect on Azerbaijan’s GDP and non-oil GDP, a weak effect on inflation, and a significantly negative effect on the share of social expenditures in the national budget.

The originality and scientific novelty of the research – for the first time, this study systematically assesses the impact of global oil prices on Azerbaijan’s sustainable development indicators using statistical models based on long-term time series data.

Keywords: oil prices, sustainable development, non-oil GDP, econometric analysis, macroeconomic stability.

http://doi.org/10.59610/bbu2.2025.2.1