The purpose of the research is to model the six key indicators that characterize the development of small entrepreneurship. For this purpose, the modeling design has been developed, with a view to the line of deviation of each indicator individually. Key indicators considered include value added, gross profit, average annual number of employees, average monthly salary, investment in fixed assets and turnover. Mathematical methods such as  Matlab software package, Darbin-Watson criterion, Fisher's criterion, Student criterion, and so on have been used.

The economic reforms implemented in the country in recent years, especially state-owned business development initiatives, have also been instrumental in developing small and medium-sized businesses. Implementation of Strategic Roadmap Goals since 2017 has been able to direct economic indicators in this area to positive dynamics. It should be borne in mind that there were very serious barriers to the establishment, operation and registration of business entities. In recent years, significant changes have been made in the quality of state support in the new dimension, as well as the President's attention to the development of this area.

The methodology of the research consists of systematic analysis, mathematical, statistical, modeling, functional approach and etc.

The practical importance of the research results obtained from the research materials, computations and modeling can be used in the development of small and medium-sized businesses in the Republic of Azerbaijan, improving their efficiency, implementation of practical applications and research in this area.

The results of the research are to identify a number of problems facing the dynamic development of small and medium-sized businesses at the current stage, to develop approaches, recommendations and proposals.

The originality and scientific novelty of the research used the scientific approaches and models of various scholars in this article. But at the same time, the focus is on the authors' approach. The main novelty of the article is that these macroeconomic indicators are predicted for future periods by using the Matlab software package, Darbin-Watson, Fisher's criterion, Student's criterion for key macroeconomic indicators that are the key to the development of small businesses. The results and proposed proposals in this aspect are in line with the main target indicators of state support for the development of small business.

Keywords: small entrepreneurship, value added, forecast, profit, salary, model, benchmark, circulation, key capital, test, statistical, mathematical, etc.