The purpose of the research is to formulate proposals and recommendations regarding the evaluation of the impact of the effective use of investments in fixed capital in the non-oil sector on the growth of macroeconomic indicators.

The methodology of the research  is to evaluate, model and forecast the interrelationships and dependencies between the added value created in the non-oil sector, the commissioning of new fixed capital objects and investment indicators in the fixed capital using statistical and econometric methods.

The practical importance of the research - the models formulated in the article can be used to determine the changing prices of GDP in the non-oil sector under the influence of investments in the future, the model established in the formation of investment policy, to compare investment levels with the growth rate of GDP and to increase investment attractiveness.

The results of the research - in the article, the impact of investments on the main components of economic development, including the growth of GDP and capital funds in the non-oil sector, was analyzed using the correlation-regression method. In the analysis and research of such relations, the "Almon" method, which includes the effects on the result sign, taking into account the delay values (the effect of the delay on the result sign) was used. Based on the established model-relationship equation, an increase of 1 million manats in fixed capital investments in the non-oil sector in Azerbaijan in the studied period results in an increase of 1.67 million manats in GDP in the mentioned sector. The model built according to the Almon method shows that 57.4% of the impact of the investment on the growth of the fixed capital (ΔK) is realized in the first year, and 23.9% after one year. More than half, 86.4%, of the impact of non-oil investment on fixed capital growth (ΔK) occurs with a two-year lag, while 87.7% of the impact of investment on fixed capital growth is realized within three years.

The originality and scientific novelty of the research - the evaluation and modeling of the relationship and dependencies between macroeconomic indicators were studied. The data analysis functions of the SPSS software package were used to calculate the parameters of the relationship equation and evaluate the adequacy of the established model. The investment models formed as a result of the research allow predicting the result of investment costs and can be used in the analysis and planning of investments.

Keywords: non-oil sector, GDP, investment, interaction, capital, modeling.

https://doi.org/10.59610/bbu4.2023.4.1